After a 10-day break, an extraordinary series is poised to return to the spotlight.
As a result, here we are. Australia is still one win away from winning the Ashes in England for the first time since 2001
Big picture: Prepare for detonation after the détente.
Is it just me, or is it unusually quiet around here? All of the froth and bombast of the first three Tests has faded after a ten-day cooling-off period, to be replaced with a more modest concentration as England and Australia gird their loins and prepare for round four of a never-ending Ashes campaign.
Perhaps the feeling of battle lines being formed, of weaknesses being probed and strengths being recognized, has contributed to this relative period of détente. Maybe it’s just the calm before the storm, a chance to let all those antagonistic column inches and debates about the Spirit of Cricket fade away while the ladies take over the Ashes narrative for a few days. In any case, this series respite could not have come at a better time for both sets of combatants, following a three-match onslaught that sapped both sanity and stamina in equal measure.
In that exciting three-wicket win at Headingley, England collectively busted a gut to keep their campaign afloat, most evocatively through Mark Wood’s magnificent displays of raw speed, each staccato burst visibly exhausting his batteries even as he maintained his mid-90 mph velocity. Ben Stokes did not bowl a single over in the same Test, instead channeling his own focus into that crucial first-innings counterattack, while Stuart Broad, now on course to play in all five Tests despite doubting he would even make the first-innings attack, will be grateful for an extended rest of his 37-year-old bones.
Similarly, for Australia, the opportunity to relax, reflect, and reassess a 2-1 scoreline that, prior to the series, they would have gladly accepted at this stage of the campaign is a Godsend. For large stretches of the Headingley Test, their assault appeared to be carried entirely by Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc, so Australia will have taken advantage of the opportunity to refine both spearheads while refilling their quiver with another A-lister in the rested Josh Hazlewood. Cameron Green has also been reinstated after a hamstring injury halted his campaign, while Todd Murphy has been dropped following an uninspiring outing at Headingley.
Then there’s the mental toll that three high-octane contests will impose. On Jonny Bairstow after a poor performance at Headingley; on David Warner after two more dismissals at the hands of his arch-rival Broad. Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith have neither achieved the kind of success that their illustrious records might have predicted. On England’s overall relaxed dressing-room attitude, which, despite Brendon McCullum’s unwavering resolve to eradicate angst and double-down on positive reinforcement, cannot have avoided the uniquely intense media scrutiny that comes with an Ashes series,
As a result, here we are. Australia is still one win away from winning the Ashes in England for the first time since 2001, and England is two wins away from completing the first 0-2 Ashes reversal since Don Bradman and company in 1936–37.
In any other period, that could feel like too much to ask, especially with the Manchester weather set to make things even more difficult this week. But that’s not how the Bazball age works. Draws are not an option for Ben Stokes’ England team, and their overall record of 12 wins from 16 games since the start of last summer provides statistical support for their innate optimism.
Even two days of rain might not be enough to keep England’s captain from engineering a coin flip of a run chase; during a media brainstorming session prior to the Multan Test in December, he even admitted that an innings forfeiture wouldn’t be out of the question if it helped speed up any given game. After practically gambling and losing in the series opener at Edgbaston, you get the feeling Stokes won’t be afraid to risk it all again if it’s the only way to keep those Ashes dreams alive.
As a result, it won’t take much huffing and puffing for the flames to rekindle after this week of Ashes smoldering. Especially now that England has adopted an attack that is truly unrivaled in terms of expertise. James Anderson (41 next week), Broad (37), Moeen Ali (36), Chris Woakes (34) and Wood (33) have seen it all over the last decade and more, as have Stokes and Root (both 32), the other key bowling options in an XI that will have a combined 1,974 Test wickets, more than any other Test team in history and breaking their own record of 1,777, set at Edgbaston in the first Test.
If nothing else, that lineup demonstrates how fleeting the Bazball era may be. How this Test, and – all else being equal from England’s perspective – the next at The Oval, could represent an end as well as a beginning, similar to the two defining Ashes tussles of the century: the epic of 2005, after which nothing was ever quite the same for England again, and Australia’s revenge mission in 2006–07, when Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne bowed out on a high at Sydney, with their narrative arcs completed
In any case, you have a feeling there will be more bodies in the following days. Anything less would be a betrayal of the drama that this summer has to offer.
Form guide
England WLLWL (last five Tests, most recent first)
Australia LWWWD
In the spotlight: James Anderson and Marnus Labuschagne
Is this the final act? Never say never when it comes to James Anderson’s ageless abilities, but even the man himself hinted at his career mortality in a recent Telegraph essay, admitting that “nostalgia” alone would not be enough to bring him back to Old Trafford. But now, on the eve of his 41st birthday, he’s back in the saddle not only on merit but also at a pivotal point in the series. His numbers to date are unsettling; three wickets at 75.33 in 77 overs isn’t the effect he’d hoped for in his eleventh Ashes campaign, but there’s little doubt that he dealt with the worst of the circumstances on two flat decks at Edgbaston and Lord’s. Headingley’s bounce and movement would have been more to his preference, and he’ll be looking for similar northern comfort as he lines up from the James Anderson End once more.
On this Ashes tour, Marnus Labuschagne’s Test career has come full circle. He got his big break four years ago as a concussion sub following Steve Smith’s run-in with Jofra Archer in the Lord’s Test, and he’s never looked back. Labuschagne was a fixture in Australia’s middle order four half-centuries and a successfully defended urn later, and when he followed that up with four big centuries in five home Tests against Pakistan and New Zealand, his march to the upper echelons of Test batsmanship was well underway.
And, after 41 Tests, Labuschagne’s career average of 53.80 aptly confirms his status as one of the leading players of his generation, but his performances this summer—211 runs at 26.37 across four Tests, including the World Test Championship final against India—represent a significant drop from those standards. Furthermore, his home-and-away split is beginning to distinguish him: a commanding 2397 runs at 70.50 in 37 home Test innings, compared to 1208 runs at 36.60 in 35 overseas. This summer, he’s found his outside judgment to be particularly lacking, most notably in his first-ball snick-off against Broad at Edgbaston. He’s been working hard all hours of the day and night to improve his game, even “taking his hotel pillow to the nets,” according to skipper Pat Cummins. And, with the Ashes on the line once more, this week would be an ideal time for hard work to pay dividends.
Team news: Anderson, Hazlewood, and Green return to attacks
England, as is customary, named their team 48 hours before the Test, with only one alteration from the three-wicket victory at Headingley. Anderson replaces Ollie Robinson, who declared himself “100% fit” following a mid-match back spasm but whose impact with the ball in this series hasn’t quite lived up to his motor-mouthed verbal contributions (not that 10 wickets at 28.40 and an economy of 2.76 represent a complete failure to walk the talk).
From England’s standpoint, perhaps the most remarkable characteristic is the lack of change. Despite a lackluster contribution of 5 from 15 balls in the Headingley run chase, they haven’t been deterred from promoting Moeen to No. 3—a move designed to improve the middle order, where Bairstow has been retained as wicketkeeper despite a deeply scratchy performance in the series so far. The first three Tests give the impression that Bairstow’s horrifically fractured leg is hurting his mobility behind the stumps, which is harming his granite-willed batting. However, as Bazball’s first poster boy following his daring feat in 2022, England has decided that now is not the time to give up hope. It could be a risk that determines the series’ fate.
England: 1 Zak Crawley, 2 Ben Duckett, 3 Moeen Ali, 4 Joe Root, 5 Harry Brook, 6 Ben Stokes (capt), 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Chris Woakes, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 Mark Wood, 11 James Anderson
Australia’s choice was a similar mix of clear and agonizing decision-making. Hazlewood’s recall over Scott Boland is a no-brainer; England’s nemesis from 2021–22 was dismissed at nearly five an over for his two wickets at Edgbaston and Headingley, and it makes way for a bowler whose six wickets in the corresponding Old Trafford Test in 2019 helped Australia retain the Ashes. Hazlewood’s performances in the first two Tests of the summer were his first back-to-back since January 2021, but he’ll be fresh and firing after a nearly three-week layoff.
Their other choice has proven a bit more difficult. Mitchell Marsh’s stunning performance at Headingley ensured his retention, but it left Green without an apparent place in the starting XI. Several solutions were proposed, including the omission of Warner in light of his ongoing struggles against Broad, but instead they’ve decided to drop spinner Murphy, despite Old Trafford’s reputation as one of England’s more spin-friendly surfaces, and rely on a pair of allrounders to add ballast to the seam attack while providing a significant extension to the batting line-up.
Australia: 1 David Warner, 2 Usman Khawaja, 3 Marnus Labuschagne, 4 Steve Smith, 5 Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Cameron Green, 7 Alex Carey (wk), 9 Mitchell Starc, 10 Pat Cummins (captain), 11 Josh Hazlewood
Pitch and conditions
Apparently, the jet stream is to blame for this one. While the rest of Europe is sweltering in temperatures well above 40 degrees Celsius, the United Kingdom has returned to being a damp rock in the North Atlantic, with cloudy skies, drizzle, and general dampness forecast for the whole Test-match week. In other words, typical Manchester weather, which may have the unintended consequence of keeping the pitch fresh for the seamers in between the inevitable rain delays, After twenty-four hours, the surface appears hard and brown, with no obvious live grass visible. It appears to be a bat-first deck, but the overheads may disagree. The reverse-swing has been a vital weapon in recent Ashes matches at Old Trafford, but Stokes admitted that the lush outfield would likely prevent that possibility.
Stats and Trivia
- Australia has won nine of its previous 31 Tests at Old Trafford while losing seven, the most recent of which was a long time ago. England’s last Ashes victory on the ground was in 1981, with Ian Botham’s Ashes-sealing assault. They’ve drawn three and lost four games since then, including their most recent encounter in 2019.
- Moeen Ali reached 200 Test wickets earlier this month at Headingley; he now needs another 23 runs to surpass 3000 Test runs, a scenario he described as “miles away” on the eve of the Test.
- Broad needs two more wickets to achieve 600 in Tests, which would make him the fifth bowler overall and only the second seamer after teammate Anderson (now on the list).
- After electing not to bowl during the third Test due to a long-standing knee ailment, Stokes crossed 6000 runs at Headingley but still needs three wickets to achieve 200.
- Anderson has not played in a Test victory over Australia since the 2015 Edgbaston Test. In the four years thereafter, he has appeared in nine defeats and two draws.
- In February 1986, New Zealand’s assault against Australia in Christchurch (Richard Hadlee, Gary Troup, Ewen Chatfield, and Jeremy Coney) was the last occasion a Test team fielded four specialist seamers aged 33 or older. The only prior Ashes squad was Australia in Brisbane in 1928, the year Bradman made his debut.
Quotes
“If we win this one, it will be difficult not to say that this is the best men’s Ashes series in a long time, if not the best, going into the final game at 2-2.” Take away Australia and England, and the cricket played has been absolutely wonderful.”
Ben Stokes is aiming for the series decider as England attempts to claw their way back from the brink of defeat.
Looking back on some of our recent journeys to Pakistan or India, we played some of our finest cricket at the end of the tour. Hopefully, this one will be the same, as I’m becoming more accustomed to the conditions.”
Pat Cummins believes Australia will peak at the perfect time.
Read more cricket news here at 22bet India, The Best Sports Betting Site in India.
